Analytics
“Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Jun 30, 2024. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 87 hourly price points from Nov 27, 2023 to Feb 21, 2024 (Yes between 11.5% and 99.5%); 2 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 110 recent public fills from 28 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve according to the identical market created on Manifold by Richard Hanania, currently available here: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/hamas-command-center-under-alshifa. If the aforementioned market is deemed permanently unavailable, or if the resolution is otherwise inaccessible, this market will resolve according to the existing rules: "Israel claims that Hamas has a command center under al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Hamas denies this. This market will settle as YES if credible reporting confirms the existence of a command center underneath the hospital or in its immediate vicinity, in addition to the claims Israel has provided as of November 10, 2023. The market will expire on June 30, 2024. If no evidence emerges by that time, or it is shown that there is no such command center, this market will settle as NO. Update, November 19, 8:46 AM PST: The term "no evidence" in the original question was meant to be relative, not absolute. This market will resolve YES if there is enough evidence to conclude there was a command center, but not otherwise. If I estimate there was at least a 90% chance that Hamas had a command center under al-Shifa this market will resolve as YES based on a totality of the evidence. The evidence will be judged based on a consensus of credible reporting, mainly taken from The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and The Washington Post. If before the end date it becomes 90% likely there was no command center in my judgment, this market will resolve as NO. If we get to the end of the market and it's not 90% certain in either direction, the market will resolve as NO. As for definitions, a "command center" is a place where Hamas either plans or gives orders for military operations. It does not have to be the main command center of its entire war effort, or necessarily a "headquarters." The command center must have been in use as a command center at some point during the current war or during the events immediately preceding it."
Resolution source: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/hamas-command-center-under-alshifa
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hamas-command-center-under-al-shifa-hospital
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dream-179 | No | 3.05K |
| Chriscalucb | No | 3.45 |