Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 23.5% on 11 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 114 daily closes on record from 11 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 40.4% on 26 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 39.1% on 16 Oct 2025. $52.55K traded over the market's life.
57 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 114 points, 11 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2025 | 23.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bruce.Li | Yes | 1.25K |
| Murky-Concern | Yes | 1K |
| JTXEXE | Yes | 746.72 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Half-Life 3 or a differently titled game continuing the Half-Life series is officially released in the US by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Valve Corporation.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/half-life-3-released-in-2025
| Yes |
| 678.66 |
| denygo | Yes | 458.25 |
| vralis | Yes | 403.45 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 333 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 253.99 |
| Fafafy | Yes | 238.67 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 199.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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