Analytics
Resolved Yes on 17 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.3%. Yes opened at 85.5% on 13 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 68 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2025 to 17 Feb 2026, the highest close was 98.7% on 18 Jan 2026 and the lowest 85.5% on 13 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.8 points up, to 98.5% on 16 Feb 2026. $77.24K traded over the market's life.
43 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 19, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 68 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 17 Feb 2026, chart shows 80%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | 85.5% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | 98.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| gaojinlaiyinchao | No | 1.35K |
| boogz | No | 755.04 |
| Yazkyo | No | 724.85 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1 similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt20-released-by
| No |
| 518.29 |
| Sandypaws | No | 442.65 |
| novani.azz | No | 359.07 |
| yfcyfc | No | 275 |
| nigg99 | No | 206.31 |
| pisia | No | 188.67 |
| wantclue | No | 179.36 |
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