Analytics
Resolved Yes on 9 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 81% on 26 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 26 Feb 2026 to 9 Mar 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 100% on 5 Mar 2026 and the lowest 66.5% on 27 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 81.5% on 28 Feb 2026.
82 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 10, 2:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 26 Feb 2026 – 9 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Feb 2026 | 81.0% |
| 9 Mar 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Vacant-Talk | No | 52.27K |
| FlyingViking22 | No | 41.56K |
| Wwlwwl | No | 40K |
| Wealthywithme | No | 10K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.3 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.3, or a general-purpose variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.2, similar to the core-version progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. Model releases that do not resemble this core version progression, such as task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), reasoning models of the o-series family, as well as products labeled GPT-6 or similar, will not qualify for this market. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gpt-5pt3-released-by-february-28-394
| Bare-Tribe | No | 4K |
| Deserted-Yam | No | 4K |
| Nifty-Comptroller-Enclave | No | 3.74K |
| Cosmic Vector 3D87 | No | 3.5K |
| Clumsy-Pear | No | 3K |
| Raypiaso002 | No | 3K |
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