GPT-5 scores ≥ 70% on FrontierMath Benchmark by November 30?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$9.4K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 10% on 5 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 5 Nov 2025 to 1 Dec 2025, the highest close was 10% on 5 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.1 points up, to 7.4% on 20 Nov 2025. $9.38K traded over the market's life.

13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 30, 5:28 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 5 Nov 2025 – 1 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–15%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
5 Nov 2025	10.0%
1 Dec 2025	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	753
tailevent	Yes	600
Crimson Vector F03A	Yes	174
Bold Scout BD7E	Yes	169

10 of 13 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if GPT-5 achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.