Analytics
Resolved Yes on 18 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 11% on 9 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 40 daily closes on record from 9 Nov 2024 to 18 Dec 2024, the highest close was 100% on 18 Dec 2024 and the lowest 7.5% on 15 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 59.5% on 18 Nov 2024. $3.75M traded over the market's life.
148 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 18, 9:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 9 Nov 2024 – 18 Dec 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2024 | 11.0% |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 492.65K |
| elingirl | No | 42.67K |
| Authorized-Reservoir | No | 265.71 |
| Frica | No | 260.17 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by less than 1.5% of the popular vote when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/popular-vote-margin-of-victory-0pt25-ranges
| St-Qc | No | 222 |
| SuperJaz | No | 100 |
| Staraviuss | Yes | 32.26 |
| matthewmartinez | No | 21.09 |
| Repulsive-Lane | No | 2.22 |
| Peppery-Correspondence | Yes | 1.72 |
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