Analytics
“Google reports Gemini monthly active users above 800M in Q1?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Google reports Gemini monthly active users above __ in Q1?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 1 May 2026. $2.22K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 8 daily price points from Apr 24, 2026 UTC to May 1, 2026 UTC (Yes between 4.5% and 93.0%); 10 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 70 recent public fills from 25 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 8 points · 24 Apr 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Apr 2026 | 57.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 4.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Freemoney77 | Yes | 322.86 |
| daroghi | Yes | 56.16 |
| PPMT | Yes |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alphabet, in its official company earnings materials for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, reports that the Gemini App’s Monthly Active Users reached or exceeded the listed amount at any point. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. Only reports of the specified metric which explicitly indicate that the Gemini app’s monthly active users reached or exceeded the listed amount will qualify. For example, reports that the Gemini app’s monthly active users were “around” 800 million would not be sufficient to resolve a market for above 800 million monthly active users to “Yes”. The resolution source for this market is Alphabet's official company earnings materials for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, regulatory filings, and recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/google-reports-gemini-monthly-active-users-above-in-q1
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 29.95 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 20 |
| Giving-Wick | Yes | 13.2 |
| Afraid-Rim | Yes | 11.63 |
| Wordy-Doctrine | Yes | 10 |
| Weekly-Interval | Yes | 5 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | Yes | 5 |