Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 23% on 29 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 135 daily closes on record from 29 Aug 2024 to 10 Jan 2025, the highest close was 38.5% on 14 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 26 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 38.5% on 14 Sep 2024. $939.02K traded over the market's life.
87 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 11, 6:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 135 points, 29 Aug 2024 – 10 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2024 | 23.0% |
| 10 Jan 2025 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 270.58K |
| CarlTheGreat | Yes | 10K |
| Stranger4711 | Yes | 3.53K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of greater than 1.30°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of greater than 1.30°C for 2024 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/global-heat-increase-2024
| Yes |
| 2.97K |
| Obarik | Yes | 2.65K |
| Maxikin9 | Yes | 1.68K |
| Sick-Highway | Yes | 1.56K |
| Flexxii | Yes | 1.46K |
| enochsmiles | Yes | 1K |
| MichaelPlangger | Yes | 819.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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