Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 48% on 13 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 80.5% on 19 Jan 2026 and the low 0.3% on 28 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 48 points down, to 10% on 6 Feb 2026. $42.46K traded over the market's life.
52 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 4:07 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 149 points, 13 Jan 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | 48.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.4% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Glencore (GLEN.L) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Rio Tinto (RIO.L) , or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Glencore or Rio Tinto will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Glencore or Rio Tinto; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/glencore-and-rio-tinto-merger-announced-by-june-30
| Yes |
| 100 |
| ljcoolj | Yes | 68.04 |
| Severe-Feather | No | 38.42 |
| ClaudeD | Yes | 32 |
| Muted-Flipflops | Yes | 24.98 |
| ss16cyclops | Yes | 20 |
| TerranSupremacy | Yes | 16.78 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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