Analytics
Yes is at 82%, up 30 points from 52% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026, the highest close was 81.5% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 52% on 23 Oct 2026. The current quote, 82%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 81.5% on 24 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 81.5% on 24 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “GitHub.com critical incident by...?”.
$639.61 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $659.63 since listing. The order book holds $523.36, with a 10.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 31 trades, $418.08 bought Yes and $9.6 bought No.
The largest Yes position is BE0707 with 291 shares; the largest No position is AJSV with 234.
Trading closes on 16 Nov 2026, 24 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 12:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 40%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 52.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 81.5% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/github-com-critical-incident-byptptpt-20261022
| LornaPredicts |
| No |
| 67.09 |
| Solar Signal F3B1 | No | 30 |
| SmartBoyBilly | Yes | 20.02 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | No | 19.97 |
| tradeo39 | No | 19.74 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 19 |
| bechamel | No | 18.75 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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