Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 10 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 65 daily closes on record from 10 Feb 2026 to 1 May 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 63% on 18 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 11% on 20 Feb 2026. $123.5K traded over the market's life.
144 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 1:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 65 points, 10 Feb 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2026 | 46.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| notsatoshi1 | Yes | 13.58K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 750 |
| Agonizing-Pressure | Yes | 715.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 3.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 3.5 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.5 (e.g., Gemini 3.5 Pro would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3, similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 2.5. Products labeled as Gemini 4 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. Additional Gemini 3 models (e.g. a release of Gemini 3 Flash-lite) will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gemini-3pt5-released-by-june-30
| Yes |
| 695.48 |
| tremp2001 | Yes | 622.11 |
| nikitaxce | Yes | 600 |
| ouiouidescs | Yes | 600 |
| Dimpled-Wasting | Yes | 545.84 |
| policestici | Yes | 500 |
| noid2 | Yes | 500 |
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