Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 67% on 19 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 19 Nov 2025 to 16 Dec 2025, the highest close was 87.5% on 21 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 16 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 52 points down, to 23.5% on 23 Nov 2025. $1.44M traded over the market's life.
234 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 19 Nov 2025 – 16 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Nov 2025 | 67.0% |
| 16 Dec 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| guwapanese | Yes | 53.81K |
| Giddy-Mochi | Yes | 14.33K |
| Whogod | Yes | 6.76K |
| Icky-Member | Yes | 6.21K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by December 15, 2025, 11:59PM ET. For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 3.0 Flash must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 3.0 Flash refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.0 Flash. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gemini-3pt0-flash-released-by-december-31
| berim | Yes | 5.01K |
| divorceddad | Yes | 4.67K |
| Live-Laugh | Yes | 4.31K |
| yaibibabu | Yes | 3.53K |
| letsspeakfreely | Yes | 3.39K |
| Neumann97 | Yes | 2.88K |
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