Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 27 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Dec 2025 to 31 Jan 2026, the highest close was 49.5% on 27 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 31 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 29.5% on 28 Dec 2025. $320.95K traded over the market's life.
121 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 1, 4:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Dec 2025 – 31 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2025 | 49.5% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 147.37K |
| blueberryfafo | Yes | 10.1K |
| moon-k58-lad | Yes | 8.26K |
| Witty-Security | Yes | 7.93K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of January 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during January. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during January on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Resolution source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gc-settle-jan-2026
| garytong188 | Yes | 4.54K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 4.06K |
| products | Yes | 3.85K |
| rated | Yes | 3.42K |
| International-Priesthood | Yes | 3.19K |
| Lightcone1 | Yes | 3K |
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