Analytics
Yes is at 12.7%, up 5.9 points from 6.8% when the market opened on 24 Oct 2026.
Across the 4 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 12.7% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 5.1% on 25 Oct 2026.
$7.09K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $17.73K since listing. The order book holds $6.46K, with a 4.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 70 trades, $353.12 bought Yes and $4.67K bought No; the largest was a $3.19K sell of No at 91.3¢.
The largest Yes position is 5911 with 4.5K shares; the largest No position is ledgersurpol with 4.3K. Ten wallets hold 89.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 24 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | 6.8% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 12.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 5911 | Yes | 4.49K |
| ledgersurpol | No | 4.3K |
| Violet Lynx BA65 | Yes | 594.29 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government fails to make a scheduled payment on any French government note, bond, or bill at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any French sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the French Treasury (Agence France Trésor), Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/france-defaults-on-debt-by-december-31-2027
| aviato |
| No |
| 549.46 |
| whaleP3 | No | 330 |
| SteppeKasandra | No | 321.5 |
| Smooth-Snowsuit | Yes | 275.04 |
| hopolopop | Yes | 200 |
| Haradwaith | No | 178 |
| Mr.Buttholio | Yes | 164.48 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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