Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 75%. Yes opened at 47% on 30 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 30 Jun 2026 to 1 Jul 2026, the highest close was 75% on 1 Jul 2026 and the lowest 47% on 30 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 75% on 1 Jul 2026. $589.16 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 9:49 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 30 Jun 2026 – 1 Jul 2026, chart shows 40%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | 47.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 75.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Wasteful-Maintenance | No | 422.35 |
| RadioFreeZerg | No | 40 |
| triklozoid | No | 15 |
| youngwhale | No | 1.15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sadio Mané records more than 0.5 shots within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Sadio Mané records 0.5 shots or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Shots are counted only if credited to Sadio Mané in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Sadio Mané is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Resolution source: https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fifwc-bel-sen-2026-07-01-player-props
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