Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bp cut" favored on Monday?

Resolved

25bps cut, settled Nov 24, 2025 UTC

No Change

0.0%

25bps cut

100.0%

Final No Change 0¢Final 25bps cut 100¢

Lifetime volume

$367.6K

Resolved

25bps cut

Settled

Nov 24, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved 25bps cut on 24 Nov 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had 25bps cut at 98.3%. The No Change side opened at 8% on 22 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 22 Nov 2025 to 24 Nov 2025, the highest close was 8% on 22 Nov 2025 and the lowest 1.7% on 24 Nov 2025. $367.59K traded over the market's life.

89 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Nov 26, 12:34 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the No Change price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 22 Nov 2025 – 24 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

No Change price, first and latest
Observed	No Change price
22 Nov 2025	8.0%
24 Nov 2025	1.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
bofiatofu	No Change	6.26K
Golden-Cloves	No Change	2.55K
OkaneKasegu	No Change	2K
balduur	No Change	1.11K

10 of 89 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “No Change” if “No Change” is the favorite in the Dec 10, 2025 Fed decision market (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december) during the specified period. This market will resolve to “25 bps Cut” if “25 bps decrease” is the favorite during that period. The favorite will be determined by examining the 4-hour window between 10:00 AM ET and 1:59 PM ET on Monday, November 24, 2025. This market will resolve to whichever of “No Change” or “25 bps Cut / 25 bps decrease” is ahead in more individual minutes during this window. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the Dec 10, 2025 “Fed decision in December?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on Federivative (https://federivative.polymarket.com/) with the range set to "6H" and the candle set to “1m” or through the “Resolution” tab on Federivative with the time set for November 24, 2025, 2:00 PM ET. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.