Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 25 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 25.5% on 25 Nov 2025 and the low 0.3% on 9 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 8.5% on 26 Nov 2025. $55.35K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 11, 4:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 25 Nov 2025 – 10 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Nov 2025 | 25.5% |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| aldynspeedruns | Yes | 18.27K |
| Merlot | Yes | 1.67K |
| Habibkhadafi | Yes | 1.65K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 992.99 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between “No Change” and “25 bps decrease”, “No Change” becomes the favorite in the Dec 10, 2025 Fed decision market (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december) for any 4 hour period ending December 9, 2025, 11:59PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “No Change” will be considered to have become the favorite for a four hour period if it is ahead of “25 bps cut / 25 bps decrease” in more individual minutes than “25 bps cut / 25 bps decrease” is ahead of “No Change” during the period. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the Dec 10, 2025 “Fed decision in December?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on Federivative (https://federivative.polymarket.com/) with the range set to "6H" and the candle set to “1m” or through the “Resolution” tab on Federivative with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-derivative-no-change-and-25bps-cut-flip-by-december-9
| biggachu | Yes | 333.33 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 287 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 247 |
| wylzub | Yes | 243.01 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 204 |
| 696969696969696969 | Yes | 185.15 |
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