Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 20% on December 10?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 11, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$17.4K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 11, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 11 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.5%. Yes opened at 68% on 5 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 5 Dec 2025 to 11 Dec 2025, the highest close was 68.5% on 8 Dec 2025 and the lowest 1.6% on 11 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 63 points down, to 1.6% on 11 Dec 2025. $17.44K traded over the market's life.

9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 12, 8:34 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 5 Dec 2025 – 11 Dec 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
5 Dec 2025	68.0%
11 Dec 2025	1.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Perfumed-Rayon	Yes	214.4
0xRocket666	Yes	150
Cartulio	Yes	59.7
Kevacious	Yes	40

9 of 9 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in January?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) is priced over the listed value between 2:00 PM ET and 5:59 PM ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-jan-25bps-cut-over-20-on-december-10 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.