Fact Check: Is the suspect transgender?

Resolved

Yes, settled Sep 11, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$1.5M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 11, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 11 Sep 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 90.8% on 28 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 28 Aug 2025 to 11 Sep 2025, the highest close was 100% on 11 Sep 2025 and the lowest 85.9% on 3 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 85.9% on 3 Sep 2025. $1.54M traded over the market's life.

136 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 12, 8:37 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 28 Aug 2025 – 11 Sep 2025, chart shows 80%–100%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
meraki.eth	No	386.83K
boredmansachs	No	200K
Mcflyy	No	107.56K
papitchulo01	No	16.11K

10 of 136 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On August 27, there was a mass shooting in a Minneapolis Catholic school (see: https://apnews.com/live/minneapolis-annunciation-school-shooting) This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the August 27 shooter identified as transgender. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve once there have been statements from relevant law enforcement confirming whether the shooter was transgender. If no definitive statement has been made by September 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what law enforcement believe was most likely (e.g., if they have not indicated the suspect was a transgender actor, the market would resolve to "No"). The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, with priority given to official statements relevant law enforcement agencies.