Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 3.5% on 16 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 16 Sep 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 3.5% on 16 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.6% on 28 Sep 2024. $18.33K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 5:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 16 Sep 2024 – 1 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2024 | 3.5% |
| 1 Oct 2024 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On September 15, there was an incident in which a suspect was detained in connection to shots fired at Trump's golf course. This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that the September 15th shooter at Trump's golf course was a foreign actor—namely, someone acting under the direction or sponsorship of a foreign government or organization. This market will resolve to "No" if it is confirmed that the shooter was not a foreign actor and had no foreign connections. This market will resolve once there have been statements from the U.S. Secret Service or FBI confirming whether the shooter was a foreign actor. If there has been no definitive statement by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what the Secret Service and FBI believe was most likely - if they have not indicated the suspect was a foreign actor, the market would resolve to "No." The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, with priority given to official statements from the U.S. Secret Service and FBI.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fact-check-is-the-suspect-a-foreign-actor
| Picsou | Yes | 0.15 |
| znleynnj | No | 0.08 |
| Mealy-Flute | No | 0.02 |
| tertund78 | No | 0.01 |
| nejttflw | No | 0.01 |
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