Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 28% on 12 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 141 daily closes on record from 12 Dec 2024 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 31% on 14 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.8% on 1 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 14% on 16 Dec 2024. $136.45K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 141 points, 12 Dec 2024 – 1 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Dec 2024 | 28.0% |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Saddamhussein | Yes | 16.69K |
| Ez12 | Yes | 4.85K |
| helloworlduwu | Yes | 1.07K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Luigi Mangione is gay or bisexual by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official statements from Mangione, his legal representation, and information released by law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fact-check-is-luigi-mangione-gay
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| No |
| 569.64 |
| I_SUCK_🍆_4_CASH | Yes | 186.95 |
| Mangione | Yes | 132.5 |
| chimpandkoala | Yes | 131.25 |
| utaha | No | 50 |
| SanchoMask | Yes | 43.48 |
| IvuskinMykola | Yes | 38.89 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
