Analytics
Resolved Verstappen on 30 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Verstappen at 65%. The Russell side opened at 35.5% on 25 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 25 Nov 2025 to 30 Nov 2025, the highest close was 40% on 26 Nov 2025 and the lowest 33% on 28 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 33% on 28 Nov 2025. $470.18 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 2, 12:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Russell price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 25 Nov 2025 – 30 Nov 2025, chart shows 30%–45%
| Observed | Russell price |
|---|---|
| 25 Nov 2025 | 35.5% |
| 30 Nov 2025 | 35.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Russell | 134 |
| DFarm | Russell | 14 |
| Deafening-Possible | Russell | 14 |
| Ethical-Step | Russell | 2.63 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the driver who finishes ahead of the other at the F1 Qatar Grand Prix, scheduled for Nov 30, 2025. If Russell finishes ahead of Verstappen, this market will resolve to "Russell". If Verstappen finishes ahead of Russell, this market will resolve to "Verstappen". In the case of a tie between two drivers, this market will resolve 50-50. If the Qatar Grand Prix is postponed this market will remain open until the vent has been completed. If the Qatar Grand Prix is permanently canceled this market will resolve 50-50. If either driver fails to finish the race (including DNF, DSQ, or any other non-finish), the driver who completes more laps will be considered to have finished ahead. If both drivers complete the same number of laps, this market will resolve 50-50, regardless of the order in which they retired. This rule applies even if one or both drivers are unclassified in the FIA “Final Classification.” This market will resolve based on the "Final Classification" published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The "Final Classification" is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.
Resolution source: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2025/races
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/f1-qatar-grand-prix-h2h-2025-11-30
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