Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 87.5%. Yes opened at 18.5% on 4 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 4 Mar 2026 to 7 Mar 2026, the highest close was 18.5% on 4 Mar 2026 and the lowest 8.5% on 5 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 8.5% on 5 Mar 2026.
53 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 8, 10:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 4 Mar 2026 – 7 Mar 2026, chart shows 5%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2026 | 18.5% |
| 7 Mar 2026 | 12.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.54K |
| ElTraderMasRentableDelPais | Yes | 3.2K |
| Esvvhjtrfvnki7yg4gbj6yg | Yes | 2.09K |
| Imaginative-Favorite | Yes | 908.51 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the driver who achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 7, 2026 (ET). If the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Mar 14, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid. For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Resolution source: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/f1-australian-grand-prix-driver-pole-position-2026-03-07
| VX1 | Yes | 526 |
| ThelastoneNB | Yes | 500 |
| 36B5 | Yes | 499.99 |
| DataProphet | Yes | 199.99 |
| Frozen-Settlement | Yes | 174.67 |
| schlammpeitzger | Yes | 163.42 |
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