Analytics
The Up side is at 48.5%, down 1.5 points from 50% when the market opened on 20 Oct 2026.
The high was 56% on 21 Oct 2026 and the low 48.5% on 21 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 48.5% on 21 Oct 2026.
$6.32K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $15.49K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 106 trades, $2.22K bought Up and $740.79 bought Down.
The largest Up position is suntori with 1.1K shares; the largest Down position is coinfilippe with 1.7K. Ten wallets hold 88.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 21 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 21, 6:58 AM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 20 Oct 2026 – 21 Oct 2026, chart shows 45%–60%
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 48.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| coinfilippe | Down | 1.73K |
| suntori | Up | 1.08K |
| ComTruise | Up | 489.4 |
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Oct 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Oct 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ethereum-up-or-down-on-october-21-2026
| Niseko |
| Up |
| 400 |
| Impressive-Steak | Down | 377.37 |
| LesMeGo | Down | 376.76 |
| gobblewobble | Down | 251.75 |
| 196874353278 | Up | 240.64 |
| vedaresearch.eth | Up | 230.21 |
| Organic-Smuggling | Up | 217.39 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
