Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Apr 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 48%. Yes opened at 49% on 28 Mar 2024. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 28 Mar 2024 to 3 Apr 2024, the highest close was 52% on 3 Apr 2024 and the lowest 30.5% on 29 Mar 2024. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 52% on 3 Apr 2024. $14.8K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 28 Mar 2024 – 3 Apr 2024, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Mar 2024 | 49.0% |
| 3 Apr 2024 | 52.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 18.46K |
| mort_mortowski | Yes | 38.7 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On March 27 Ethena (ENA) announced the upcoming end of their pre-token "Ethena Shard Campaign" and the upcoming launch of their token (see https://mirror.xyz/0xF99d0E4E3435cc9C9868D1C6274DfaB3e2721341/uCBp9VeuLWs-ul1b6AOUAoMg5HBB_iizMIi-11N6nT8). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethena's token $ENA is between $7,500,000,000 (inclusive) and $10,000,000,000 (exclusive) 1 day after its first community airdrop. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." "1 day after its first community airdrop" is defined as 24 hours after the first community airdrop starts. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethena (NA) doesn't airdrop by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes."
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ethena-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-airdrop
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