Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 13% on 20 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 13% on 20 Jan 2026 and the low 0.1% on 22 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 0.1% on 22 Jan 2026. $30.3K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 23, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 20 Jan 2026 – 22 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2026 | 13.0% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RajGupta0510 | Yes | 1K |
| acal | Yes | 832.7 |
| kevin-airdrop | Yes | 558.83 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 386 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 250 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 211 |
| NNLL | Yes | 208.16 |
| O2J | Yes | 200 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 108 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Elsa's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Elsa (https://x.com/HeyElsaAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elsa-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
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