Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 81%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 19 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 49.5% on 19 Jan 2026 and the low 19% on 11 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 33% on 8 Feb 2026. $8.47K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 16, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 27 points · 19 Jan 2026 – 14 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jan 2026 | 49.5% |
| 14 Feb 2026 | 19.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Punisher2022 | Yes | 164 |
| Archer20240411 | Yes | 142.86 |
| tomypiestany | Yes | 120 |
| Cannae | Yes | 112.6 |
| CorellianCoder | Yes | 100 |
| Punctual-Ironclad | Yes | 100 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 100 |
| Wdox | Yes | 50 |
| Sparkling-Rope | Yes | 30 |
| Cloudy-Canoe | Yes | 30 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 14, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
Resolution source: https://www.efl.com/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elc-swe-mil-2026-02-14
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