Donald Trump Silver Bulletin odds >55% on Friday?

politicsResolved

No, settled Oct 25, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$27.8K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 25, 2024 UTC

Topic roomOil, gold and commodities

Where it stands

Resolved No on 25 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 80%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 22 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 22 Oct 2024 to 25 Oct 2024, the highest close was 30.5% on 22 Oct 2024 and the lowest 18.5% on 23 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 18.5% on 23 Oct 2024. $27.82K traded over the market's life.

33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 26, 9:32 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 22 Oct 2024 – 25 Oct 2024, chart shows 15%–35%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
22 Oct 2024	30.5%
25 Oct 2024	20.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
uuuuuujuujuujuujnuujnuujnuujn	Yes	20
justfuner	Yes	0.07
Fchoose	Yes	0.06
hotelbiewku	Yes	0.06

10 of 33 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump has a 55.1% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast on October 25, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 25 when the datapoint first become available. If no datapoint for October 25 is available by October 29, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to October 25.