Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 0.7% on 3 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 3 Jul 2025 to 5 Jul 2025, the price held at 0.8%. $44.37K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 6, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 3 Jul 2025 – 5 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | 0.7% |
| 5 Jul 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BabyYoda12 | Yes | 3.73K |
| alamerosion | Yes | 950.31 |
| ck0219 | Yes | 509 |
| turnaround | Yes | 500 |
| Poised-Sculpture | Yes | 464.82 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 408 |
| VagO | Yes | 368.11 |
| Fredric | Yes | 307.8 |
| SolanaIdris | Yes | 297.06 |
| metformin1 | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sean "Diddy" Combs is released from custody by July 4, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Diddy is released from custody by the resolution date but remains under house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". If Diddy is released on bond, this will count as being released from custody and the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Diddy to another location of custody will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant government bodies, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/diddy-released-by-july-4
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