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Resolved No on 16 Mar 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 89%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 3 Mar 2024. Before it settled, the high was 37.5% on 4 Mar 2024 and the low 11% on 16 Mar 2024. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 11% on 16 Mar 2024. $7.32K traded over the market's life.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 3 Mar 2024 – 16 Mar 2024, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2024 | 34.5% |
| 16 Mar 2024 | 11.0% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On March 1, 2024, it was reported that a fisherman found a balloon off the coast of Alaska: (https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/01/politics/fishermen-possible-spy-balloon-fbi-alaska/index.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ‘mystery balloon’ is confirmed to be Chinese in origin by March 15, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note: The balloon need not have started its journey in China, it merely needs to be confirmed that it is of Chinese origin. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements made by the government of the United States of America. Official statements that indicate that the balloon is likely or presumed to be of Chinese origin will be sufficient to resolve this market positively. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/did-the-alaska-balloon-come-from-china
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