Analytics
Resolved Yes on 23 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 91.5% on 10 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2025 to 23 Sep 2025, the highest close was 99.9% on 11 Sep 2025 and the lowest 91.5% on 10 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.4 points up, to 99.9% on 11 Sep 2025. $80.49K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 24, 8:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 10 Sep 2025 – 23 Sep 2025, chart shows 85%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2025 | 91.5% |
| 23 Sep 2025 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gloomy-Dredger | No | 666.67 |
| exilewarmonk | No | 269.37 |
| qwertzu | No | 110.34 |
| olycapitalInc05 | No | 88.53 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Democrat James Walkinshaw wins the 2025 special election for Virginia's 11th congressional district to replace former Representative Gerry Connolly by a 45% margin over the Republican candidate, Stewart Whitson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The margin of victory is calculated as the difference betweenJames Walkinshaw and Stewart Whitson. In the event of a runoff, this market's resolution will be based on the runoff's outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Virginia; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/democratic-margin-of-victory-in-va-11-special-election-at-least-45
| 0rgin4l | Yes | 13.01 |
| oonisha | No | 12.73 |
| flamigoer | No | 11.36 |
| jjjjdsd2 | Yes | 8.02 |
| lopino231 | Yes | 6.01 |
| Moultom | Yes | 0.08 |
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