Question 1

What is the “DeepSeek R2 released before May?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: DeepSeek R2 released before May? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Apr 30, 2025. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek R model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-R1.5) will not count, however versions such as DeepSeek R2 or R3 will count. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek R model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as…

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($179.87K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 21 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 98.4% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated May 2, 4:20 PM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/deepseek-r2-released-before-may) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Bucket	Close	Mid
May 1, 12:00 AM	1.0%	1.0%
Apr 30, 12:00 AM	1.7%	1.7%
Apr 29, 12:00 AM	4.5%	4.5%

DeepSeek R2 released before May?

Questions about this market