Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 2 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 31 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2024 to 1 Nov 2024, the highest close was 21.5% on 6 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 16.5% on 5 Oct 2024. $35.93K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 6:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 2 Oct 2024 – 1 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2024 | 15.5% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AntonPrag | Yes | 2.3K |
| Huskan | Yes | 100 |
| SexWithPolyMarket | No | 11.01 |
| IAmNotAmerican | No | 0.04 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Crimean Bridge (Kerch Bridge) is the subject of a kinetic strike between September 29 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Missile/drone strikes which are shot down or don't hit the bridge will not be considered for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/crimean-bridge-hit-before-november
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Tatafe | No | 0.04 |
| Desarioos | No | 0.02 |
| asdczx | No | 0.01 |
