Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 24 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 193 daily closes on record from 24 Jun 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 25.5% on 24 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 12.5% on 25 Jun 2025. $54.73K traded over the market's life.
48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 193 points, 24 Jun 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jun 2025 | 25.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Carry1 | Yes | 1.72K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 439 |
| Warcus10 | Yes | 391.42 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States enacts an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) specifically targeting Iran between June 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, both chambers of Congress must pass, and the President (currently Donald Trump) must sign into law, a bill that explicitly authorizes the use of U.S. military force against Iran. The authorization does not need to use the exact phrase “Authorization for Use of Military Force,” but it must clearly and specifically authorize military action against Iran as a state actor. General defense appropriations, intelligence findings, covert action approvals, or broader regional authorizations that do not explicitly pertain to Iran will not qualify. Presidential orders or military action without such a law being passed and signed will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official U.S. government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House releases) however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/congress-authorizes-military-force-against-iran-in-2025
| Rvoller | Yes | 384.39 |
| LisaPeterson8285 | Yes | 365 |
| Drito | Yes | 242.76 |
| Mehdipersian | Yes | 229.05 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 190 |
| evilcookie101 | Yes | 166.99 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 165 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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