Analytics
Resolved No on 26 Apr 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 7 Mar 2023. Before it settled, across the 47 daily closes on record from 7 Mar 2023 to 26 Apr 2023 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 60% on 21 Mar 2023 and the lowest 0.5% on 20 Apr 2023. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 17% on 5 Apr 2023. $29.31K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 26, 5:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 65 points, 7 Mar 2023 – 17 May 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2023 | 50.0% |
| 17 May 2023 | 50.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bold Signal 66DA | Yes | 745.82K |
| Coordinated-Handball | Yes | 250 |
| Jade Atlas 64FA | Yes | 0.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
A 2023 election for the Mayor of Chicago resulted in no candidate getting a majority, triggering a runoff between Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson scheduled to be held on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. This market will resolve to "Yes" if either candidate in the 2023 Chicago mayoral runoff wins by a margin greater than 5% (e.g. margin of 5.0001% resolves to "Yes"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by each candidate in the election. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates. For example, if Candidate A receives 53% of the votes, and Candidate B receives 47% of the votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (|Candidate A% - Candidate B%| = Margin of Victory). Determination of the margin of victory of this election will be based on final election authority certification or other final official determination of the election results. If this election does not take place by December 31, 2023, this market will resolve 50-50.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chicago-mayor-margin-of-victory-5
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