Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 13 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 112 daily closes on record from 13 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 11.5% on 13 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Dec 2025. $39.78K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 2:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 112 points, 13 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2025 | 11.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| goontown | Yes | 614.19 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 269 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 254 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/cdc-issues-level-4-warning-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 226 |
| LisaPeterson8285 | Yes | 208 |
| RicardoJones4589 | Yes | 198.95 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 174 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 114 |
| SandraHardy4985 | Yes | 82 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 77.73 |
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