Caroline Ellison sentenced to 60 or more months in prison?

cryptoResolved

No, settled Sep 24, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$147.9K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 24, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 24 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 95%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 13 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 13 Sep 2024 to 24 Sep 2024, the highest close was 15% on 14 Sep 2024 and the lowest 2.7% on 22 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 15% on 14 Sep 2024. $147.87K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 25, 8:46 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 13 Sep 2024 – 24 Sep 2024, chart shows 0%–20%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Sep 2024	9.5%
24 Sep 2024	5.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	57.86K
lossi	Yes	2.26K
2024AD	Yes	769.49
qrpenc	Yes	327.22

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Former CEO of Alameda Research Caroline Ellison is scheduled to be sentenced on September 24, 2024 (see https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/09/11/former-ftx-executive-caroline-ellisons-sentencing-hearing-set-for-sept-24/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Caroline Ellison is sentenced to spend 60 or more months in custody of a jail or prison, as part of "United States of America v. Caroline Ellison", by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No". If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2024 ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.