Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 52%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 13 Sep 2024. Before it settled, the high was 53.5% on 23 Sep 2024 and the low 28.5% on 15 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 48.5% on 17 Sep 2024. $371.54K traded over the market's life.
56 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 25, 11:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 12 points · 13 Sep 2024 – 24 Sep 2024 · axis zoomed to 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2024 | 43.5% |
| 24 Sep 2024 | 48.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 57.86K |
| MaxMeng | Yes | 8.37K |
| sav2024 | Yes | 4K |
| ansem400 | Yes | 968.65 |
| qrpenc | Yes | 300 |
| Well-Made-Asymmetry | Yes | 295.8 |
| GrumpdaGump | Yes | 222.22 |
| Coindarosa | Yes | 100.66 |
| the-gambler | No | 84.4 |
| 0xkore | Yes | 74.47 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
Former CEO of Alameda Research Caroline Ellison is scheduled to be sentenced on September 24, 2024 (see https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/09/11/former-ftx-executive-caroline-ellisons-sentencing-hearing-set-for-sept-24/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Caroline Ellison is not sentenced to spend any time in custody of a jail or prison, as part of "United States of America v. Caroline Ellison", by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "Yes". If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2024 ET this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/caroline-ellison-prison-time
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