Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 26 Apr 2024. Before it settled, the high was 50% on 25 Oct 2024 and the low 0.1% on 23 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 49 points up, to 50% on 25 Oct 2024. $59.61K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 6, 7:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 194 points · 26 Apr 2024 – 5 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2024 | 7.5% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | 0.4% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by Nov 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET a bill is signed into law in the U.S. which effectively increases the top net long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals to a rate higher than 20%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note: if a bill has the effect of treating net long-term capital gains as ordinary income, and the top rate on the income is above 20%, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Surtaxes or other modifications to what is considered long-term capital gains will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/capital-gains-tax-increase-before-election-day
New to prediction markets?
| stray21 | Yes | 0.53 |
| Sawelop | Yes | 0.5 |
| Guozii | Yes | 0.4 |
| Low-Proctor | Yes | 0.33 |
| Timber | No | 0.04 |
| xerafs | No | 0.01 |
| beesaca | No | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
