Analytics
Resolved Tran on 28 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Tran at 99.7%. The Tran side opened at 43% on 31 Oct 2024. Before it settled, the high was 99.7% on 28 Nov 2024 and the low 17.5% on 12 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 69% on 20 Nov 2024. $416.88K traded over the market's life.
58 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 29, 4:09 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Tran price, Polymarket CLOB · 29 points · 31 Oct 2024 – 28 Nov 2024
| Observed | Tran price |
|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2024 | 43.0% |
| 28 Nov 2024 | 99.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bigB242 | Steel | 5.06K |
| Lunar Lynx BBA9 | Steel | 251.57 |
| SuperJaz | Steel | 200 |
| Lukev | Steel | 65.57 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. This market will resolve to "Tran" if Democrat Derek Tran wins the congressional election in California's 45th district. This market will resolve to "Steel" if Republican Michelle Steel wins the congressional election in California's 45th district. If any other candidate wins the election, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-45-election-tran-d-vs-steel-r
| Bold Kestrel 6D1D | Steel | 34.22 |
| Elonmusty47 | Steel | 33.33 |
| CobaltAzure | Steel | 12.22 |
| swangli | Tran | 10 |
| Simon.mango | Steel | 3.64 |
| Masarat | Steel | 3.45 |
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