Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 80.5%. Yes opened at 45% on 5 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 52% on 10 Jan 2026 and the low 19% on 13 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 52% on 10 Jan 2026. $50.13K traded over the market's life.
74 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 12:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 13 points · 5 Jan 2026 – 17 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 45.0% |
| 17 Jan 2026 | 19.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Scented-Pompom | Yes | 10.26K |
| VorpalQuark | Yes | 5K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.49K |
| Cannae | Yes | 2.09K |
| Creative-Vine | Yes | 774.9 |
| rezber3 | Yes | 492 |
| AcidHunter | Yes | 409.8 |
| bundeskanzlerblume | Yes | 250 |
| cherbert | Yes | 192.31 |
| liangjian | Yes | 185.19 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
In the upcoming game, scheduled for January 17, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
Resolution source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bun-lei-bay-2026-01-17
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