Analytics
Resolved Down on 11 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Down at 35.5%. The Up side opened at 50% on 10 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 10 Dec 2025 to 11 Dec 2025, the highest close was 64.5% on 11 Dec 2025 and the lowest 50% on 10 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 64.5% on 11 Dec 2025. $13.11K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 12, 8:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 10 Dec 2025 – 11 Dec 2025, chart shows 45%–70%
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 11 Dec 2025 | 64.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| patternrecovery | Up | 1.2K |
| S01T004651 | Up | 283.32 |
| 4UWxEA8 | Up | 196 |
| K5bJHl3G | Up | 190 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Resolution source: https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-4h-1765400400
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| Camacoin | Up | 33.33 |
| Shanghai-Winner | Up | 30 |
| triklozoid | Up | 14.99 |
| rocketcrypto | Up | 12 |
| ntrinn | Up | 10.2 |
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