Question 1

What is the “Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 5, 2025. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($153.7K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 90 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 53.7% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Dec 6, 8:29 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-15m-1764901800) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
SMs7p5V9A	Down	4.54K	50.0%	$4.54K
0mzx7kwb	Down	4.01K	50.0%	$4.01K

Trader	Current holding value
SMs7p5V9A	$0
0mzx7kwb	$0
DkzkoWhP	$0
RbfyzCznE	$0
ZWWAjgJ78	$0
esNKQom15	$0
mv1mnz10rqej	$0
Glamorous-Semiconductor	$0
px10TSA7beuj	$0
Quintessential-Toe	$0
Fearful-Waterskiing	$0
Spicy-Truck	$0

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

Questions about this market