Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Brazil bans Discord by September 30, 2026?” is a tech prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Brazil bans Discord by...?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Oct 1, 2026 UTC. As of Oct 1, 3:53 AM UTC, Yes trades at 0.5¢, a 0.5% implied chance, $115.88 traded in the last 24 hours, $10.83K resting in the order book, a 0.9% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 32 daily price points from Sep 1, 2026 UTC to Oct 1, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.5% and 53.0%); 13 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 98.6% of the loaded shares; 22 recent public fills from 11 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 32 points · 1 Sep 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2026 | 36.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| pelucia | No | 115.88 |
| AJSV | Yes | 53.63 |
| winexecutescale | Yes |
On August 6, 2026, Poder360 reported that Brazil’s Attorney General’s Office (AGU) plans to ask the courts to suspend Discord in Brazil, citing alleged failures to comply with Brazilian law and adequately protect minors. You can read more about that here: https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-justica/agu-vai-acionar-a-justica-para-tirar-o-discord-do-ar-diz-messias/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if use of Discord is banned within Brazil through a nationwide, legally effective government or court order and such ban is publicly confirmed between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A legally-effective nationwide court order requiring either the temporary suspension of Discord’s activities in Brazil or a prohibition on Discord operating in Brazil will qualify as a ban for the purposes of this market, regardless of whether technical implementation of the order has been completed. An order that is stayed, suspended, or overturned before taking legal effect will not qualify. If a qualifying order takes legal effect, a subsequent stay, suspension, or reversal will not affect the market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Brazilian government, courts and Discord, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-bans-discord-byptptpt-20260807130012951
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 22 |
| orbitalcoins2 | Yes | 20.33 |
| lolzzzlol | Yes | 20 |
| bdc12 | No | 14.96 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 11.98 |
| flexer78 | Yes | 8 |
| orangutan51 | No | 6.07 |
| nebula1 | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
