Analytics
Trading ended on 14 Sep 2026 with the Mauricio Lara side at 51.5%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 57 daily closes on record from 28 Aug 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 89% on 30 Aug 2026 and the lowest 50% on 28 Aug 2026. A week before that last close the Mauricio Lara side was at 51.5%; a month before, 52%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points up, to 89% on 30 Aug 2026.
$113.6 has traded since listing.
The largest Mauricio Lara position is Arabella58 with 24 shares; the largest Carlos Ornelas position is Mirabella180 with 24.
Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 1:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Mauricio Lara price, Polymarket CLOB, 57 points, 28 Aug 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Mauricio Lara price |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 51.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Arabella58 | Mauricio Lara | 24.1 |
| Mirabella180 | Carlos Ornelas | 24.1 |
| Theodora11 | Mauricio Lara | 23.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Mauricio Lara" if Mauricio Lara is officially declared the winner of the fight against Carlos Ornelas, scheduled for August 30, 2026. It will resolve to "Carlos Ornelas" if Carlos Ornelas is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled before it begins, or postponed beyond September 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from governing body.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/boxing-lara-ornela-2026-08-30
| Carlos Ornelas |
| 23.4 |
| Valentina05 | Mauricio Lara | 23.1 |
| Genevieve320 | Carlos Ornelas | 23.1 |
| Magdalena666 | Mauricio Lara | 19.8 |
| Clementine158 | Carlos Ornelas | 19.8 |
| Isadora99 | Mauricio Lara | 13.1 |
| Persephone666 | Carlos Ornelas | 13.1 |
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