- What is the “Bolsonaro arrested before May?” market asking?
- It asks whether the following will happen: Bolsonaro arrested before May? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
- What do the Yes and No prices mean?
- At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
- When does this market close?
- Trading is scheduled to close on Apr 30, 2025. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
- How does this market resolve?
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Bolsonaro is arrested between March 26 and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
- 24h volume ($40.5K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
- Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?
- Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated May 2, 12:22 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.
