Analytics
The Up side is at 38.5%, down 12 points from 50% when the market opened on 21 Oct 2026.
The high was 50% on 21 Oct 2026 and the low 38.5% on 22 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 38.5% on 22 Oct 2026.
$14.69K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $40.94K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 309 trades, $4.62K bought Up and $1.75K bought Down.
The largest Up position is easyclap with 1.5K shares; the largest Down position is Niseko with 2K. Ten wallets hold 73.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 22 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 22, 12:58 AM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 21 Oct 2026 – 22 Oct 2026, chart shows 35%–55%
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 38.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Niseko | Down | 2K |
| Pesky-Hole | Down | 1.85K |
| easyclap | Up | 1.51K |
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-october-22-2026
| ComTruise |
| Down |
| 1.26K |
| Impressive-Steak | Up | 1.08K |
| SingW | Up | 1K |
| Ideal-Friction | Down | 998.91 |
| market-watcher | Up | 854.64 |
| gobblewobble | Up | 690.68 |
| Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | Up | 645.55 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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