Analytics
Resolved Up on 20 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Up at 49.5%. The Up side opened at 50.5% on 19 Oct 2026. Before it settled, the high was 50.5% on 19 Oct 2026 and the low 49.5% on 20 Oct 2026. $163.79K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 21, 4:15 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 19 Oct 2026 – 20 Oct 2026, chart shows 45%–55%
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | 50.5% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 49.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ace | Down | 1.68K |
| 5f5a | Down | 251.49 |
| Schmegegi-Teple | Down | 194.56 |
| Hen2020 | Down | 150 |
| hakhdn | Down | 134.92 |
| metwoowt | Down | 114.69 |
| Grotesque-Plight | Down | 111.12 |
| degengamblerdoteth | Down | 91.67 |
| rplc-ftbl | Down | 50.68 |
| Useless-Subcomponent | Down | 41.67 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-october-20-2026
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