Analytics
Resolved Down on 18 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Down at 44.5%. The Up side opened at 50% on 17 Oct 2026. Before it settled, the high was 55.5% on 18 Oct 2026 and the low 50% on 17 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 55.5% on 18 Oct 2026. $183.07K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 19, 4:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 17 Oct 2026 – 18 Oct 2026, chart shows 45%–60%
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 55.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SingW | Up | 3.13K |
| Ideal-Friction | Up | 788.37 |
| TinaGoat | Up | 522.15 |
| mmzhu3 | Up | 401.88 |
| easypredict | Up | 394.96 |
| MagnificentMoron | Up | 310 |
| metwoowt | Up | 201.6 |
| BipTheDip | Up | 197.49 |
| planckoracle | Up | 152.48 |
| oneandonlyoneandone | Up | 105.99 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-october-18-2026
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