Bitcoin Up or Down on January 2?

Resolved

Up, settled Jan 2, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$547.4K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 2, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Up on 2 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Up at 24.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 1 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2026 to 2 Jan 2026, the highest close was 75.5% on 2 Jan 2026 and the lowest 50.5% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 75.5% on 2 Jan 2026. $547.39K traded over the market's life.

105 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 12:29 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 1 Jan 2026 – 2 Jan 2026, chart shows 40%–90%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 Jan 2026	50.5%
2 Jan 2026	75.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
asdc21c	Down	3.11K
CryptoSaiyan	Down	3.02K
PolloMolo	Down	3K
nqcc268	Down	2.93K

10 of 105 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jan 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jan 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jan 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jan 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.